Traditionally, in November, December and January the stock market shows a upward trend. So, unless I have a liquidity problem, otherwise, I think I will hold the shares on hand until first quarter of 2010. (But, in reality, I am facing the liquidity problem, the fund already have a debt of 80K!!...if finally I really need to sell my shares, finance and IT shares may be the last choice, that it, I will sell bank and IT stock at last moment!! ) How about yours?
I agree that Chinese Bank stock has its growing trend. But, it seems that the current stock value is a bit far from its reasonable value. So, I will take an embedded value of 3.5 as a target of my selling strategy.
Why you think the Chinese Bank stocks is higher than the reasonable value??? Before finance crises, the reasonable value of world class bank is around P/E=17 times. Now, ICBC(工行) is 18.3, CCB(建行) is 16.1, BOC(中行) is 16.8!! Actually, it is okay for investment.
And, I don't very understand what is your meaning of embedded value of 3.5? what is 3.5? stock price?
Embedded Value （may not be the correct jargon) but it is equal to current stock price divided by asset value of each stock. For ISBC, the asset value is around 1.8For CBC, it is around 2.
Furthermore, you can think about what is the asset of a bank. It's mainly financial asset (not physical asset like property, land,..etc),... financial asset such as bond, stocks,..etc,..those VALUE will up and down with the market just like the bank own stock price,..!! I think this VALUE is quite constant but stock price does not. Take HSBC as an example In 2004 Embedded value is 1.88, stock price is around $130 In 2005 Embedded value is 1.85, stock price is around $125 In 2006 Embedded value is 1.81, stock price is around $140 In 2007 Embedded value is 1.57, stock price is around $140 In 2008 Embedded value is 1.32, stock price is around $85 The relation is quite weak...right? So, I don't think it is a good indicator!
8 則留言:
Will U take profit now ???
Any view to share ???
Mr.Stock
Traditionally, in November, December and January the stock market shows a upward trend.
So, unless I have a liquidity problem, otherwise, I think I will hold the shares on hand until first quarter of 2010.
(But, in reality, I am facing the liquidity problem, the fund already have a debt of 80K!!...if finally I really need to sell my shares, finance and IT shares may be the last choice, that it, I will sell bank and IT stock at last moment!! )
How about yours?
I agree that Chinese Bank stock has its growing trend. But, it seems that the current stock value is a bit far from its reasonable value. So, I will take an embedded value of 3.5 as a target of my selling strategy.
Is it sounds reasonable ???
Why you think the Chinese Bank stocks is higher than the reasonable value???
Before finance crises, the reasonable value of world class bank is around P/E=17 times.
Now, ICBC(工行) is 18.3, CCB(建行) is 16.1, BOC(中行) is 16.8!! Actually, it is okay for investment.
And, I don't very understand what is your meaning of embedded value of 3.5? what is 3.5? stock price?
Embedded Value （may not be the correct jargon) but it is equal to current stock price divided by asset value of each stock. For ISBC, the asset value is around 1.8For CBC, it is around 2.
If so, do u think 3.5 can be reached ?
Furthermore, you can think about what is the asset of a bank. It's mainly financial asset (not physical asset like property, land,..etc),... financial asset such as bond, stocks,..etc,..those VALUE will up and down with the market just like the bank own stock price,..!!
I think this VALUE is quite constant but stock price does not.
Take HSBC as an example
In 2004 Embedded value is 1.88, stock price is around $130
In 2005 Embedded value is 1.85, stock price is around $125
In 2006 Embedded value is 1.81, stock price is around $140
In 2007 Embedded value is 1.57, stock price is around $140
In 2008 Embedded value is 1.32, stock price is around $85
The relation is quite weak...right?
So, I don't think it is a good indicator!
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